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Solana’s SOL token is eyeing a potential leap toward $200 after futures open interest vaulted to 46.2 million SOL—around $7.4 billion—its heaviest positioning in over two years. That influx of institutional capital comes amid growing talk of a U.S. spot SOL ETF, but muted funding rates and a slide in on-chain trading volumes suggest traders are still weighing key hurdles.
On Wednesday, total open interest across SOL perpetual contracts hit its two-year peak, up 22 percent from last month, reflecting “renewed institutional appetite for Solana,” according to Press News derivatives strategist Leo Martin. tradingview.com
“More open interest begets deeper liquidity, which in turn attracts advanced strategies—everything from basis trades to calendar spreads,” Martin explains. “But price follow-through is not guaranteed without fresh catalysts.”
Retail engagement on Solana’s network has cooled sharply. Weekly DEX volumes tumbled from $29.2 billion to $10.5 billion over the past five weeks, knocking Solana’s share of total DEX activity below 30 percent.
“Solana’s rock-bottom fees once drew massive retail flows,” says blockchain analyst Priya Singh. “Now seamless DeFi alternatives on rival chains are chipping away at its on-chain usage.” tradingview.com
Perpetual futures funding rates underscore a neutral stance. Rather than the double-digit annualized premiums typical of runaway rallies, SOL’s funding has hovered near zero—suggesting neither rampant optimism nor panic selling among leveraged players.
“Funding north of 10 percent annually often marks real bullish conviction,” notes on-chain expert Maya Chen. “Current neutrality points to traders waiting for clearer triggers.” tradingview.com
The most awaited catalyst is a spot SOL ETF in the United States. Bloomberg Intelligence has raised approval odds to 90 percent, forecasting a decision by October—an outcome that could unlock institutional demand on a scale unseen since Bitcoin’s ETF debut.
“A spot ETF would be transformative,” argues financial commentator Elena Roth. “It provides pension funds and wealth managers a regulated on-ramp to SOL without self-custody risks.” cryptobriefing.com
Technically, SOL must clear $180–$185 on robust volume to break free from its current trading band. A decisive daily close above that zone could set a swift path to $200, with $220 coming into view if momentum endures. Failing that, SOL risks oscillating between $150 and $185 in the near term.
“$200 is in play if ETF approval coincides with on-chain revival,” says Press News crypto strategist David Liang. “Without both, SOL may stay range-bound.”
Key Conditions for a $200 SOL
- SEC approval for a spot SOL ETF.
- Daily close above $185 on high volume.
- Rebound in Solana DEX volumes and developer activity.
- Funding rates climbing back above 10 percent.
Beyond price action, Solana’s long-term prospects hinge on ecosystem health. Core projects like Serum, Star Atlas, and NFT marketplaces must regain traction, while protocol upgrades and cross-chain bridges need to deliver real improvements.
Traders now watch two inflection points: a clear break above $185 and any official ETF timeline from regulators. A green light on both fronts could spark the rally to $200—but in their absence, prepare for a potentially choppy range.
Stay with Press News for live coverage of SOL performance, ETF developments, and in-depth market analysis.
