Bitcoin Retraces 10% From All-Time Highs: How Low Could BTC Realistically Fall?

After reaching a fresh all-time high just days ago, Bitcoin (BTC) is once again testing the resilience of its bull market, slipping nearly 10% from peak levels as traders and analysts assess where the next support zone might hold. As of May 30, 2025, BTC is grappling with volatility near the $105,000 level, prompting new discussions around market structure, support thresholds, and the broader macro backdrop.

The correction has raised critical questions: is this simply a healthy pullback in a continued uptrend — or are there signs that the current cycle is reaching exhaustion?

“We’re seeing some signs that this cycle could be approaching its upper limits, especially when measured against past bull markets,” said Roman, a well-known trader and market commentator on X (formerly Twitter). “Each Bitcoin cycle has historically shown diminishing returns — and this one could be no different.”

Cycle Maturity and Diminishing Returns

Roman points out that the current bull market, which has delivered roughly 600% returns from the cycle bottom, is showing signs of fading strength compared to previous runs. For comparison, the 2017–2018 cycle produced approximately 2,000%, while the 2013 cycle exceeded 10,000% in gains.

“If you haven’t noticed, returns are diminishing over time,” Roman wrote on May 28. “It’s likely that we’ve topped or are extremely close!”

A chart accompanying his post highlights the psychological and technical importance of the $105,000 mark, which now serves as a short-term battleground for bulls and bears alike.

Leverage Liquidations and Sub-$100K Scenarios

While some market participants remain confident in a swift recovery, others are preparing for further downside risk. On May 30, pseudonymous trader MarketWizard (@marketwizard94) noted that unless BTC can reclaim $107,000, a move down to $102,000 is the next likely target. This aligns with on-chain and order book data suggesting a cluster of long liquidations waiting to be triggered below $104,000, according to data from CoinGlass.

“Notice the significant long liquidation clusters below current price, especially around the 103K and 99K zones,” noted TheKingfisher, a widely followed market data analyst on X. “These levels represent high-risk zones for leveraged long positions and often act as magnetic support when sentiment shifts.”

If Bitcoin dips below $100,000, analysts warn of potential cascading liquidations — a scenario where overleveraged positions are automatically closed by exchanges, accelerating downward momentum.

Support Levels: What the Data Says

Beyond immediate liquidity-driven levels, longer-term support zones are also in focus. According to Glassnode, three major technical and on-chain indicators are aligning to provide potential floors if the current downturn intensifies:

• 111-day Simple Moving Average (SMA): $92,100
• 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA): $94,700
• Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis: $95,900

These metrics have historically played an important role in identifying bull market corrections versus cycle tops. The STH cost basis, in particular, represents the average price at which new market participants purchased Bitcoin, making it a critical psychological and technical threshold.

“These three indicators are currently in close alignment, which creates a strong confluence support zone,” Glassnode stated in its weekly report, The Week Onchain. “Maintaining price above these levels will be crucial for sustaining upward momentum into Q3.”

In past cycles, price action above these lines often signaled strength in the market, while breaches below have marked the beginning of longer-term corrections.

Macro Factors and Psychological Barriers

The latest retracement comes amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. Traders are keeping an eye on inflation data, interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve, and geopolitical tensions that continue to weigh on global risk assets.

Bitcoin’s $100,000 milestone has long been considered a psychological barrier, and any sustained move below that level could influence investor sentiment far beyond technical charts. According to Kaiko Research, institutional flows into crypto ETFs have slowed slightly in the last week, suggesting some hesitation from large players as Bitcoin hovers near triple-digit support.

“Large round numbers often serve as both mental and mechanical support in the markets,” said Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies. “$100,000 is a critical threshold, and a clean break below could trigger more volatility in the short term.”

So… How Low Can It Go?

If Bitcoin breaks below all the aforementioned support zones, the next significant technical area rests near $89,000–$90,000, a level not seen since early March 2025. However, many analysts believe that any sustained move below $95,000 would likely require a significant external catalyst — such as a regulatory shock, ETF outflows, or macroeconomic instability.

Still, some bullish analysts remain unfazed. A few are calling for a rally toward $130,000 by year-end, with more aggressive projections even stretching as high as $1.5 million in multi-year scenarios (source).

“This isn’t a crash, it’s a cooling-off period,” said Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, in a recent CNBC interview. “We’ve seen this time and again. As long as fundamental demand remains intact — particularly from institutional ETFs — Bitcoin will resume its march higher.”

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin’s 10% retracement from all-time highs is not without precedent. Throughout its history, BTC has routinely experienced pullbacks of 20–30% even during strong bull markets. What makes the current correction notable is the level of leverage in the system and the growing role that macro and institutional players now play in dictating market movement.

The next few days — and Bitcoin’s ability to defend the $100,000–$105,000 range — could set the tone for the rest of Q2. Until then, traders are advised to monitor liquidation zones, moving averages, and on-chain cost basis indicators closely as the market recalibrates.